Public Debt and the Common Good by James Odom

Author:James Odom
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780429866395
Publisher: Taylor & Francis (CAM)
Published: 2018-06-20T16:00:00+00:00

Model 3: Percent of a State’s Population in Cities Greater Than 100,000

A generalized estimating equation (GEE) through PROC GENMOD in SAS is used to regress covariates of interest on real state debt per capita (censored) in the following form:

Where yit is real state debt per capita in a given state i at time t; α is the constant; βit is the log of the population density of a given state i at time t; γit is the percent population in cities greater than 100,000 of a given state i at time t; μit is the age of a given state i at time t; δit is the percent voter turnout of a given state i at time t; θit is the percent vote for Democratic presidential candidate in a given state i at time t; ϑit is the log of the Protestant/Catholic population ratio in a given state i at time t; ρit is the real intergovernmental aid per capita in a given state i at time t; ψ is state revenue own source as a percent of total local and state revenue own source in a given state i at time t; χ is the number of balanced-budget rules in force in a given state i at time t; and τ is the number of lawyers per 1,000 population in a given state i at time t.

As Table 4.4 indicates, population density, percent population in cities greater than 100,000, voter turnout, the Protestant/Catholic population ratio, real intergovernmental aid to the state per capita, state revenue as a percent of local and state revenue, and the numbers of lawyers per 1,000 population are significant in Model 1. The error term for Model 3 is well-behaved, with a skewness of 0.92 and a kurtosis of 1.34. The QIC is 284.41.

Table 4.4 Regression of Real State Debt Right Censored* on Select Variables (1920–1990), Population in Cities Greater than 100,000

Parameter Estimate Standard Error Pr > |Z|

Intercept –142.21 280.40 0.6120

Population Density (log) 240.98 46.35 <0.0001

Population in Cities > 100,000 (%) –14.10 3.62 0.0001

Age of State –1.47 1.45 0.3114

Voter Turnout –9.08 3.79 0.0167

Vote for Democrat President (%) –3.52 3.44 0.3067

Protestant/Catholic Population (log) –117.79 36.39 0.0012

Real IG Aid to the State Per Capita 1.10 0.12 <0.0001

State Revenue as % of State Plus Local Revenue 6.93 3.40 0.0417

Total Balanced Budget Rules –15.30 13.80 0.2677

Lawyers/1,000 Population 327.53 94.62 0.0005

Source: Author’s analysis of select datasets included in Appendix.

Note

*5 percent of the highest observations (or 19 out of 384).

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